The shortage of chips could already be over next year. The reason is the large-scale expansion of production, which will soon bear fruit, said industry analyst Alan Priestley from the IT market researcher Gartner of the German Press Agency. The industry has been investing in new factories since the first signs of bottlenecks at the beginning of the corona pandemic. “That’s why we’ll probably have overcapacity in 2023 or 2024,” Priestley predicted.
This oversupply will in turn be eaten up over time by the increasing demand. This interplay is in itself typical for the chip industry, stressed Priestley. “As soon as demand and supply are in balance, investments are made to have capacity for the next surge in demand.”
Failed to invest in expansion
However, the current chip crisis was so severe because in some areas not enough had been invested in expansion – and at the same time demand had skyrocketed with the increased work and learning in the corona pandemic.
At the same time, the expansion of capacities is associated with risks for the suppliers, since the production lines are not flexible. “If I build a factory for chips with a structure width of seven nanometers, it cannot be converted to five nanometers without great effort.”
And it is not as easy as in other areas to simply let production rest. That’s why companies have to plan their expansion decisions with particular foresight – and new capacities in one area are not necessarily helpful for other parts of the industry.
The chip bottlenecks caused, among other things, delivery problems for computers, cars, household appliances and electronics such as tablets. (SDA)