Although the prospects for the Swiss economy continue to deteriorate, economiesuisse does not expect a recession in the coming year in its latest forecast. (icon picture)
The Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to achieve weak growth of 0.6 percent in 2023, the association announced on Monday at a media conference. The pillars of growth are private consumption and investments in equipment, while construction, public consumption and foreign trade are likely to have a negative impact on growth.
According to the assessment, the shortage of skilled workers, high energy prices and price increases for upstream services will continue, and the only slowly decreasing supply bottlenecks are also having a negative impact on economic growth. According to a survey by the association, the latter are still a problem for almost half of the companies.
However, the economic braking effect does not affect all sectors equally. The signs continue to point to growth in the value-added goods export sectors of the pharmaceutical, medtech and watchmaking industries. On the other hand, the development in the chemical industry was mixed, where the field of activity and the export markets would decide whether positive or negative growth could be expected.
The metal, electrical and machine industries and the textile industry are meanwhile assuming a decline in value added for 2023. And a negative development in value creation is also to be expected in the construction industry, albeit at a continued “good level”.
In the meantime, the association does not see the all-clear on the rise in prices. Inflation will not fall substantially in 2023 and will remain above the target range of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) at around 2.7 percent. The job market, on the other hand, should continue to do well. The unemployment rate is increasing only slightly on average over the year.
However, economiesuisse is not too sure about their forecast. The ice is thin – the economic downside risks are high, they warn.