Finally better prospects
ETH KOF economic barometer rises for the first time in a long time
Positive signs from various sectors of the Swiss economy: For the first time in six months, the ETH’s KOF economic barometer has increased slightly. This after the prospects were still rather subdued in November.
For the first time in six months, the KOF economic barometer has risen again: from 89.2 points in November to 92.2 points today. (icon picture)
The economic barometer climbed to 92.2 points, three points higher than in November (revised from 89.5 to 89.2 points), as the ETH economic research institute KOF announced on Friday.
This is the first upward movement in half a year. Previously, the indicator had fallen almost every month from its high last January at 106.6 points. However, despite the current upward movement, the barometer is below its long-term average of 100 points for the eighth time in a row.
Exceeded analysts’ expectations
With 92.2 points, the economic barometer has reached the September level again. This exceeded the expectations of the analysts, who had expected a value of 89.5 to 91.0 points. The prospects for the Swiss economy are thus brightening slightly for the beginning of 2023, but remain at a low level. In November, the barometer had fallen to its lowest level since the summer of 2020.
The comparatively strong upward movement of the barometer is primarily driven by indicators from the manufacturing sector and “other services”, wrote the KOF. The indicators from the banking and insurance industry as well as the hospitality industry also sent a positive signal.
Industry and the construction sector drive the economy
In industry and the construction sector, the strongest drivers are the employment prospects and the business situation. The assessment of the production capacities and the competitive situation also make a positive contribution, the KOF continued. Indicators for assessing the situation in production, on the other hand, were very negative.
In terms of industry, it looks best for the wood goods and metal industries. The electrical industry as well as the chemical and pharmaceutical industries are also on the up. “On the other hand, indicators covering the paper and printing industry send a strong negative signal,” wrote the KOF.
The KOF economic barometer is a leading indicator for the development of the Swiss economy, which is made up of a large number of individual indicators. Since the most recent revision, there are 608 of them. These are combined into an overall indicator using statistically determined weights. (SDA/shq)