UBS experts estimate 2022 for the annual result
National Bank makes a loss of 137 billion
The past year has been difficult in many respects. Wars, crises and inflation caused miserable figures on many stock exchanges. The SNB is also feeling the effects of this. UBS experts assess the loss of the National Bank.
UBS experts estimate that the Swiss National Bank will lose CHF 137 billion in 2022. (icon picture)
In the run-up to the annual figures from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), UBS specifies its profit estimates. For 2022 as a whole, UBS expects the SNB to make a loss of around CHF 137 billion and, accordingly, to forego a distribution to the federal government and the cantons.
According to a UBS outlook, lower share prices, higher interest rates on bonds and a stronger Swiss franc all contributed to the SNB’s annual loss. The regular dividend and interest payments would have improved the result only marginally.
5 billion profit in the fourth quarter
The loss would have been even higher had it not been for a small profit in the fourth quarter. According to UBS, the environment for financial investments improved slightly in the final quarter. The financial result of the SNB was subsequently supported by rising share prices. However, higher interest rates and a stronger Swiss franc would have prevented an even better result. The bank estimates the SNB’s fourth-quarter profit at around CHF 5 billion.
UBS estimates the distribution reserves of the SNB at around CHF 103 billion at the end of the year. Provisions for currency fluctuation reserves of probably around 10 billion francs are to be deducted from this, which means that the annual loss is around 45 billion francs too high even for a minimal payment.
Probably no money for the federal government and the cantons
Accordingly, the federal government and the cantons would have to forego a distribution this year. And for a payout in the coming year, a strong improvement in the financial markets in the current year 2023 would be necessary, according to UBS.
The SNB will publish the results for the full year 2022 and the fourth quarter next Monday, January 9th. (SDA/shq)