Military experts expect a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from the summer of 2023.
Both Ukraine and Russia would launch another offensive in the next few months to try to achieve their military goals after all. But he expects a standstill in early summer. Then Russia and Ukraine would realize that it made no sense to continue fighting if it was no longer possible to gain ground.
“That would be the moment for armistice negotiations,” said Domröse, who was also an army general in the Bundeswehr. There remains only a negotiated solution that is acceptable to both sides.
One solution could be for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to waive the demand to immediately reintegrate areas occupied by Russia, such as Crimea, into Ukraine and instead agree on a transitional period, such as the 50-year transitional period that was used when Hong Kong was handed over to China give.
The Russia and security expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Andras Racz, also expects negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in the summer and a ceasefire to follow. “I’m pretty sure we’ll have some kind of truce by the end of the year: with hopefully no more fighting, but at least a lot less fighting,” Racz said.
He pointed out that the presidential elections in Russia are due in 2024. In his view, it is unlikely that Russia wants to wage an intensive war before or during the elections. “I expect that over the course of the year Russia will want to reduce the intensity of the fighting. Also because the supply problems of the Russian army are likely to increase in the summer.”
Racz recalled that a ceasefire had already been agreed several times under the Minsk agreements. At that time, the intensity of the fighting decreased, but they did not end.
“It was a limited war in which both sides had diplomatic relations, there was trade and energy supplies – and yet the fighting continued,” said the security expert. In a year it will be a limited war again.