Forecast of the SEM
Number of asylum applications remains stable
The number of asylum applications this year will remain about the same as last year: around 24,500. The federal government expects that. An increase to 40,000 is possible. Not included are the Ukraine war refugees with almost 75,000 applications for protection status S.
Published: 14 minutes ago
Refugees from the Ukraine planting a peace linden tree on the Kleine Schanze in Bern. (Recording from May 6, 2022)
The State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) has informed the cantons of its asylum forecast for 2023, as it wrote in a statement on Tuesday. The federal government with the support of the SEM through the army, civil service and the Federal Office for Customs and Border Security as well as cantons, cities and municipalities would continue to work closely together.
The SEM expects an above-average number of new asylum applications to continue. In the most likely “medium” scenario, there would be 27,000 new applications, in the almost as likely “high” scenario, 35,000 to 40,000.
Compared to 2021, the number of asylum applications last year increased by around 64 percent. How high the number will be at the end of 2023 depends primarily on how migration from Turkey via the Balkan route and migration to Italy develops, according to the SEM. The most important countries of origin of the asylum seekers were Afghanistan and Turkey.
The SEM considers it difficult to make a long-term forecast with regard to those seeking protection from Ukraine. In the most likely scenario, the authority assumes that by the end of March this year, 2,500 to 5,000 applications for status S will be made each month. According to the State Secretariat, the number is likely to decrease continuously thereafter and will be around 1,000 to 1,500 applications per month in autumn.
This assumption assumes that the war in Ukraine will continue at its current intensity. On February 24 last year, on the orders of President Vladimir Putin, the Russian army invaded Ukraine and since then has partially occupied and formally fully annexed four regions.
So far, more than 14 million people have been displaced in Ukraine because of the fighting, around a third of the total population. According to UN estimates, between seven and eight million people have fled Ukraine to European countries.
(SDA)
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