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On October 22, Switzerland will elect a new parliament.
Sermin Fakipolitical chief
On October 22, Swiss voters will decide how the National Council and the Council of States will be composed over the next four years – and, depending on the outcome, what the Federal Council will look like in the future.
But it will only be six weeks before the party strategists start calculating. The cantonal elections will take place in Zurich on February 12, and they are generally regarded as the litmus test for the federal ballot.
First mood test with an interesting trend
An interesting trend is emerging in the Zurich elections: while the SVP, SP and Greens have to expect losses, the GLP, Mitte and FDP can hope. According to a survey conducted by the GfS Bern research institute on behalf of the “NZZ”, the SP in Zurich has to lose the most feathers: a full 1.2 percentage points. Followed by the SVP with -0.5 and the Greens with -0.4 percentage points.
As of now, the biggest winner would be the GLP: Already the fourth strongest party in Zurich, it could gain another 1.4 percentage points in its founding canton. The center (+0.5 percentage points) and FDP (+0.4 percentage points) can also hope.
Lose pole, center is strengthened
Four years after the 2019 climate elections – as a reminder: the Greens gained 6.1 percent at the time, the GLP 3.2 percent – the green wave would be over. Instead, a political climate change would take place again: the pole (parties) SVP, SP and Greens would melt, instead the political center around the GLP, center party and FDP could benefit.
Of course, caution is advised: the Green Liberals will hardly win as many new voters at the national level as in Zurich, where they are particularly strong. But the election barometer of the opinion research institute Sotomo from the end of October 2022 also sees them as the big winners with growth of 1.5 percent.
According to Sotomo, the FDP under President Thierry Burkart (47) can grow more at national level than in Zurich – with a full percentage point, it comes dangerously close to the SP. In the case of Mitte, the situation is somewhat more complicated: voter gains in Zurich would show that the change of name from the CVP (and BDP) to Mitte is having an impact in the urban environment. But before party president Gerhard Pfister (60) can pop the champagne cork, he has to wait for the elections in Lucerne at the beginning of April. Only if the center in the Catholic homeland doesn’t lose does his bet work.
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Greens can only help the weather
The picture is also quite clear on the losing side. It is actually clear to everyone that the Greens will be downgraded again. A sensational result like 2019 is difficult for President Balthasar Glättli (50) to confirm. At most, many extreme weather events in the coming year could help – flooding or extreme drought in summer would bring climate change back into the minds of voters.
It also looks bad for the SP. Even if she shouldn’t lose as much at federal level as in Zurich, where she is competing with the left alternative list. But the movement character that the co-presidium around Mattea Meyer (35) and Cédric Wermuth (36) want to give the comrades does not seem to be bearing fruit yet. And despite inflation, rising energy costs and skyrocketing premiums, their big issue of purchasing power has not caught on so far.
The Sotomo election barometer for the Federal Palace does not see the SVP as losing, as in Zurich. But even the increase of 0.5 percentage points forecast there cannot even come close to making up for the loss of 3.8 percentage points in the last elections in 2019, which was also incredible.
Are voters fed up with polarization?
In particular, the topic boom could change that. Depending on which problems Switzerland is dealing with until autumn, the poles could also be strengthened. Extreme weather would help the Greens, a new refugee crisis of the SVP.
And yet: Melting poles, strengthened center – it would be a sign from the voters that they are fed up with the polarization of the last few years and are once again relying more on parties that are struggling to find solutions and are more pragmatic in the process.