ETH strategy expert Marcel Berni classifies
How realistic is Zelenski’s 10-point peace plan?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presents a 10-point peace plan during a visit to the United States. How realistic is an end to the Ukraine war? ETH strategy expert Marcel Berni assesses the situation for Blick.
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President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky during his visit to the United States.
Tanya von Arxforeign editor
It sounds almost forgiving. And makes optimistic so shortly before Christmas. There is talk of an international peace summit and in particular a peace plan that the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (44) presented in connection with the ongoing Russian war of aggression during his visit to the USA. Specifically, the plan is about ten conditions that Selenski wants to see met if the war ends.
Zelenskiy’s ten-point plan includes: radiation protection and nuclear safety, food security, energy security, freedom for all prisoners and deportees, United Nations charter ensures Ukraine’s territorial integrity, withdrawal of all Russian troops and cessation of all hostilities, international Special court to investigate all Russian crimes and reparations, immediate protection of the environment, prevention of further escalations, peace accords confirming the end of the war. A whole series of demands.
Not even a ceasefire is realistic
The war has now lasted more than ten months. ETH strategy expert Marcel Berni (34) analyzed the situation for Blick.
His assessment: “I currently see no potential for ceasefire or even peace negotiations.” Both sides are currently hoping for military gains in territory, which makes the war “not yet ripe for negotiations,” says Berni.
At the same time, he poses the following questions: «What should be negotiated? About a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine? Or about a Ukrainian surrender?” Both are currently unrealistic due to the constellation of military forces and the claims of the warring parties.
“Just a PR offensive before Christmas”
As the timing already suggests: “Selenski’s peace plan is to be seen as part of a public relations offensive before Christmas,” the strategy expert continues. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) will not be impressed. “He wants to continue annexing Ukrainian territories as part of the Russian Federation.” Selenski, in turn, could not allow that. “As a result, the war will drag on,” says Berni.
According to strategy expert Berni, this is one of the reasons for Selenski’s visit to the White House: “He needs long-term support from America.”
Peace talks or even an international peace summit have never materialized since the outbreak of war. Attempts to talk were rebuffed by both Kyiv and Moscow. Neither Ukraine nor Russia have ever put themselves in a position from which the countries could have negotiated decisive cornerstones of a peace agreement, such as the demarcation of borders or compensation payments.