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Threatening maneuvers by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in the Persian Gulf: The situation in the Middle East is tense.
Guido Fieldsforeign editor
On Sunday night, several small aircraft attacked an Iranian ammunition factory near Isfahan. Iran speaks of minor damage and a successful defense against the drones, which apparently were quadrocopters, mini helicopters with four rotors each. In addition, attacks on military bases and an oil refinery are said to have taken place over the weekend. The background is unclear. The US may play a role.
Because: In order to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons, the US government no longer rules out military action. Foreign Minister Antony Blinken (60) said on Sunday during his trip to the Middle East: “All options are on the table.”
Will war break out in the powder keg in the Middle East? Blick answers the most important questions.
Who is behind the attacks?
Nobody has known about it. According to Israeli media, the Israeli secret service Mossad is behind it – possibly in cooperation with the American CIA. Middle East expert Erich Gysling (86) told Blick: “It’s not the first attack in Iran. The Mossad must have a covert network in Iran.”
The Iranian government will send a team of experts to the city of Isfahan to investigate the attacks on a military facility.
What weapons are made in Isfahan?
There is a uranium conversion plant in Isfahan. In addition, according to Iran, “new weapons systems” are manufactured in the ammunition factory. “It might be drones,” says Gysling. Iran supplies the Russians with inexpensive but effective combat drones for the war of aggression against Ukraine. No one knows how big the facility is. “But the mountains are well suited for large-scale bunker systems,” says Gysling.
US Secretary of State Blinken warns that “all options” are now conceivable. Will there be a big war in the Middle East?
Gysling doesn’t think so. “There have always been attacks, and there will always be attacks like this,” he says. The reaction of Iran shows that no one wants a conflagration. “The government plays down the incident so as not to have to admit that their facilities have been infiltrated.”
Iran’s friends and enemies
Just ten years ago, the then Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (74) promised: “We will be reconciled with the world.” Nothing came of it. Iran is helping Russia with arms supplies – especially combat drones – in the war against Ukraine.
Iran also exerts great influence on neighboring Iraq, where thousands of Iranians support the Iraqi militias. Middle East expert Erich Gysling: “Iraq is dependent on Iran for economic and security reasons. Without this – albeit unwelcome – help, the security situation in Iraq would be even worse than it is today.”
Iran’s opponent is Israel, which is supported by the United States. Mainly for fear of attacks from Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan and Egypt are also on this side. These countries are even talking about setting up a joint early warning system.
In the war in Yemen, the two fronts are directly opposed: Saudi Arabia is fighting on the side of the government against the insurgent Houthis, who are supported by Iran. (gf)
Just ten years ago, the then Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (74) promised: “We will be reconciled with the world.” Nothing came of it. Iran is helping Russia with arms supplies – especially combat drones – in the war against Ukraine.
Iran also exerts great influence on neighboring Iraq, where thousands of Iranians support the Iraqi militias. Middle East expert Erich Gysling: “Iraq is dependent on Iran for economic and security reasons. Without this – albeit unwelcome – help, the security situation in Iraq would be even worse than it is today.”
Iran’s opponent is Israel, which is supported by the United States. Mainly for fear of attacks from Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan and Egypt are also on this side. These countries are even talking about setting up a joint early warning system.
In the war in Yemen, the two fronts are directly opposed: Saudi Arabia is fighting on the side of the government against the insurgent Houthis, who are supported by Iran. (gf)
Could Ukraine be involved?
An attack on Russia’s arms suppliers plays Ukraine into the cards. A tweet from Zelensky’s presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoliak (50) also sounds like this: “Explosive night in Iran – drone and missile production, oil refineries. Have warned you.” However, Gysling rules out Ukraine’s participation. “You wouldn’t have the strength to do that at the moment.”
What role does Israel play?
The Israeli government is doing everything it can to prevent arch-enemy Iran from rearmament. “Israel’s game is very complex,” says Gysling. “The country also maintains good relations with Russia so that it can carry out attacks in Syria under its silence.”
How strong is Iran militarily?
This is debatable. More important than the regular army are the well-equipped Revolutionary Guards, which report directly to the revolutionary leader and are run as a parallel army. Gysling on Blick: “Iran is certainly a major regional power, if only because of its large population of around 88 million inhabitants.” Iran continues to arm itself. “The sanctions have brought nothing.”
When will Iran have built the first atomic bomb?
With a nuclear agreement from which former US President Donald Trump (76) had withdrawn, the West wanted to gain control of Iran’s nuclear program. The negotiation of a new contract has so far failed. In April 2022, Iran began enriching small amounts of uranium to 60 percent, which is close to weapons-grade uranium at 90 percent. Gysling’s assessment: “Even if you have weapons-grade uranium, you still have to develop a warhead. There’s still a long way to go before then.”