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Germany supplies Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
Fabian BabicEditor News
Recent arms shipments to Ukraine leave gaps in Western armouries. Germany has apparently overslept the reordering of Leopard tanks. Concern about the dwindling stocks of ammunition due to the Ukraine war is also growing in the USA, reports the SRF Tagesschau.
Is a threat to Western support looming? “The fact that the weapons and ammunition stocks are empty is definitely a problem,” says Marcel Berni (34), strategy expert at the Military Academy at ETH Zurich, “but for both sides”. Vladimir Putin’s (70) army also used up extremely large amounts of ammunition reserves, especially during the first months of the war. “Now there’s a race going on in the background about who can reproduce faster.”
Russian firepower is waning
At the moment it gives the impression that the Russians lack precision ammunition and rockets, says Berni. «Russia also has to switch to alternative suppliers such as Iran or North Korea. This shows that the sanctions are working.”
British and US authorities paint a similar picture: According to CNN, Russian artillery fire is drastically decreasing. In some places, authorities are recording a 75 percent drop from the peak during the war of aggression.
Paradigm shift in arms deliveries
With the promise of main battle tanks, the war strategy of the West changed at the same time. Strategy expert Berni: “In 2022, the goal was to deliver enough material so that Ukraine would not lose the war. In 2023, the goal is to provide enough material for Ukraine to win.”
However, the necessary material cannot be conjured out of a hat: “At the moment you can feel that there have been hardly any intentions in the West in recent years to build up large reserves of ammunition and armaments.” Only the US has invested heavily in increasing its arsenal.
“Now, around 30 years after the end of the Cold War, the acid test for the western models is imminent.”Marcel Berni, strategy expert at the Military Academy at ETH Zurich
This leads to a “double problem,” explains Berni: On the one hand, it is about supplying Ukraine with enough weapons. On the other hand, the supplies exhaust the arsenal of the West. “That’s why Ukraine’s western partners will soon want to increase their own national reserves in order to continue to ensure their own clout.”
The result: States are investing in the armaments industry. “Disarmament is currently out of the question. Rather, armaments are now increasingly being produced in state and semi-state companies,” says Berni.
After bloody stalemate comes offensive spring
Upgrading is a challenge. According to Berni, however, the West’s most recent commitments are a clear sign: “The West is ready to support Ukraine in a long war.” The use of the new battle tanks requires a great deal of logistical effort and time-consuming training.
But the battle tanks don’t just have a symbolic effect – they can have a significant impact on what’s happening on the battlefield, says Berni. “There has been a bloody stalemate in recent months.” This means that neither side was able to achieve decisive success. “Now it looks as if both warring parties are preparing offensive advances on a broad front for the spring. The Ukrainians want to recapture occupied areas where the Russians have dug in.” The western tanks are said to be very helpful for these reconquests.
After all, the German Leopard tanks or the US Abrams tanks were developed during the Cold War to withstand the Russian tanks, explains Berni. “Now, around 30 years after the end of the Cold War, the acid test for the western models is imminent.”