FILED – Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election is uncertain. The preference of the elections could be a tactic. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa
He announced this on Sunday evening at a meeting with young voters in Bursa in western Turkey. The elections are seen as a test for Erdogan, who has been in power for 20 years.
Erdogan was elected prime minister in 2003 and has been president since 2014. According to polls, his re-election is anything but certain – for the first time he is not the clear favorite. The opposition, on the other hand, has so far found it difficult to nominate an opposing candidate. Erdogan himself speaks of a “fateful choice”.
Bad economic situation one of the most pressing problems
Early elections in Turkey can be ordered either with 60 percent of the votes in parliament or by decree by the president. Erdogan now wants to enforce the appointment single-handedly.
The government justified the postponement of the election with the pilgrimage and holiday season, among other things. Observers suspect tactical reasons: one of the most pressing problems for the population is the poor economic situation and inflation of more than 60 percent.
Erdogan had decided on numerous simplifications in recent weeks: the minimum wage was increased by around 55 percent and Erdogan announced that he would lift the age limit for around two million employees, who would then be able to retire earlier. The opposition assumes that Erdogan wants to get the election over with before the effect fizzles out.
Voters vote for Parliament and President
The parliamentary and presidential elections will take place on the same day. Erdogan wants to run with his Islamic-conservative AKP again in the electoral alliance with the ultra-nationalist MHP. Part of the opposition has formed an alliance of six, which includes the largest opposition party, the CHP, and the national conservative Iyi party. The pro-Kurdish opposition party HDP forms another alliance with smaller parties.
Erdogan has already made it clear that he is running for the presidency again. The six-party opposition alliance does not want to announce its candidate until February – for which it has to take a lot of criticism. Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu are in the running. All are politicians from the centre-left CHP party. In the last elections in Turkey in 2018, around 1.4 million Turks in Germany were also eligible to vote.
Opposition confident of victory, uncertain chances
Whether the opposition can defeat Erdogan depends on various factors. Dissatisfaction with the economy plays into her hands. The alliance of six has also managed to bring together politicians of different ideologies – including former supporters of Erdogan. Their goal is to return the country to a parliamentary democracy and abolish the presidential system, under which the president has extensive powers.
However, the scramble for its own candidate has cost the six-party alliance sympathy. The pro-Kurdish HDP – an important majority procurer – has already announced that it will nominate its own candidate. The six-party alliance officially shuns the HDP because the government and nationalists in the opposition accuse it of being close to the banned Kurdish workers’ party PKK.
However, the HDP is also not averse to supporting Kilicdaroglu under certain conditions should he run for office. The opposition leader is considered a level-headed mediator – but also a bad campaigner. Kilicdaroglu has been at the head of the opposition for more than ten years – under his leadership his party has not yet been able to win an election against Erdogan.
Political ban and threatened party closure
The popular Istanbul mayor Imamoglu, on the other hand, was recently banned from politics and would be out of the race if the verdict became final. The HDP is also threatened with a ban in a process that human rights activists describe as politically motivated. A large part of the media is also under government control – Erdogan opponents will find it difficult to make themselves heard. Despite all the obstacles, the opposition is confident of victory.
(SDA)