“Unusually large operation”
Russian Kremlin warships and submarines set course for Ukraine
A sudden departure of ships and submarines from the Russian base in Novorossiysk towards Ukraine has experts puzzled. An attack doesn’t seem out of the question either.
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Part of the Russian fleet, including the landing ship Piotr Morgunov, is on its way to Ukraine.
Is Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (70) now preparing his navy for a major attack? The Russian Navy has suddenly dispatched a large number of ships and submarines to the Black Sea in recent weeks. This is shown by observations by the American naval expert HI Sutton.
According to the US Department of Defense, more than 25 Russian ships and submarines are currently stationed in the region – more than ever before. Among other things, Russia has moved the “Piotr Morgunov” to the Black Sea. The Ivan Gren-class DropShip was used to transport goods between Russia and the Crimean city of Sevastopol last October after Ukraine’s attack on the Crimean Bridge.
In the past few weeks, the “Piotr Morgunov” has mostly been at anchor in the southern Russian city of Novorossiysk. But now she left the port completely unexpectedly on Tuesday and is moving towards Sevastopol – together with three submarines of the Kilo type. According to Sutton, other previously unknown warships are said to have left the port of Novorossiysk. Only a few warships are said to have remained in the harbor.
Exercise or military operation?
Experts warn of a possible escalation of tensions in the region. According to Sutton, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is also watching the sudden increase in Russian activities in the Black Sea. This information was not confirmed by the Ukrainian side.
According to Sutton, there are different variants for the sudden movement of the ships. For one, it could be an exercise. Russia has repeatedly carried out maneuvers in the Black Sea in recent weeks. However, because Putin’s warships are in danger of being hit by Ukrainian drones outside the port, the Russian Navy has taken security measures. So the submarines and warships usually only move in small groups. According to Sutton, it is unlikely that three submarines and a warship would face this hazard at the same time.
Therefore, according to the expert, the Navy is more likely to conduct an operation. After the last major movements just before Christmas, Putin let a shower of rockets fall over Ukraine. However, only two submarines were sighted in the Black Sea at the time, the warships remained in safe harbor. It is unclear why the warship is now moving in the direction of Crimea.
Messages again and again
Last but not least, the possibility of a land maneuver is not excluded, reports Sutton. For example, Russia could conduct reconnaissance work in the south-west of Ukraine in order to possibly drop troops there in the future. Given the current war situation, it seems unlikely that Russia is already attacking Ukraine with troops from the Black Sea.
In the past few months there have been repeated reports of maneuvers and troop movements in the region that can be interpreted as provocations. However, the Russian Navy has always emphasized that the latest maneuvers are only part of a regular exercise and do not pose a threat. The Kremlin has not yet commented on the latest maneuvers.
It remains to be seen if the recent developments are actually part of a regular exercise or if there is more to it. The situation in the Black Sea remains tense. (zis)