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Is the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo escalating?
Marian NadlerEditor News
Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo continue to mount. Another exchange of fire broke out on Sunday after Kosovar forces tried to dismantle a barricade set up by Serbs. Will the next powder keg blow up in Eastern Europe?
What is the origin of the conflict?
The German Balkans expert Konrad Clewing from the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies put it in a nutshell: “Serbia denies the existence of the state of Kosovo.” Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, but is still considered a breakaway territory by Belgrade to this day. Belgrade is encouraging the Serb minority in northern Kosovo in their attempts to defy Pristina’s authority.
“Serbia denies the existence of the state of Kosovo.”dr Konrad Clewing
The background to the latest tensions were plans by the government in Pristina to schedule local elections in the Serb-majority areas for December 18. The main Serb party immediately announced its boycott, and as the electoral authorities were about to begin preparations, shooting and explosions broke out.
Balkans expert Zaugg: “Most people in Kosovo have no desire for an escalation”(10:46)
What do the heads of government say?
The prime ministers of the two parties to the conflict fire sharply at the other side, if only verbally.
Kosovar Prime Minister Kurti chose clear words: “The President and Prime Minister of Serbia threatened military aggression and called on the Serbian army to return to our territory. We are not looking for conflict, but for dialogue and peace. But let me be clear: the Republic of Kosovo will defend itself – with all its strength and determination.”
Military movement: Armored vehicles on the Kosovar-Serbian border(00:13)
How are Switzerland and the EU reacting?
So far, like the EU, the focus has been on words. The Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) said on Twitter that Switzerland was concerned about the increasing tensions and the erection of barricades. Both parties have been urged to take immediate action that may de-escalate the situation.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell sharply condemned the attacks. All sides must avoid any “escalation” and ensure calm, Borrell explained on Twitter. He called on the Kosovo Serbs to remove the blockades “immediately”.
National Councilor Claudia Friedl: “I am extremely concerned about the events”(02:15)
“The West does not oppose Serbia decisively enough,” criticizes Eastern Europe expert Clewing. This is because some European states would not recognize Kosovo’s independence either. European countries that have not yet recognized Kosovo include Romania, Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia and Spain.
How likely is a further escalation to war?
“I think an invasion is unlikely,” explains Clewing. “Because then Serbia would have to mess with the NATO-led KFOR.” KFOR is the name given to the multinational peacekeeping force that was set up after the end of the Kosovo war and is led by NATO.
Instead, according to Clewing, Serbia will continue the conflict primarily at the level of the secret service. In the tensions of the past few days, he sees at most a threatening gesture from Serbia.
SP Municipal Council Reis Luzhnica: “When I saw the armored vehicles, I felt queasy”(01:59)
What does the escalation mean for the Swiss soldiers stationed in Kosovo?
In the Kosovo Force (KFOR) Swisscoy, 195 Swiss men and women are currently deployed.
When asked by Blick, the Swissint competence center in Stans NW said that the tensions between Kosovo and Serbia are currently not causing any changes for the Swiss soldiers on the ground.
What role does the Russian invasion of Ukraine play?
The Kremlin regularly creates explosives in the Balkans. “Putin has been trying to torpedo the stabilization of the region for years,” Daniel Bochsler (43), professor of politics at the Central European University (CEU) in Vienna and at the University of Belgrade, told Blick in the spring. Putin specifically supports nationalists, for example Milorad Dodik (63) in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In Serbia, the Kremlin is cleverly exploiting the EU-Russia government’s both/and policy.
In August, nationalist politician Wladimir Dukanovic of the ruling SNS party tweeted that Serbia was being forced to “denazify” the Balkans. A narrative that can also be found in Russian war propaganda on the war of aggression in Ukraine. Dukanovic later backtracked and claimed he was just making a “joke”.
“Russia will continue to help Belgrade to assert its legitimate national interests with regard to Kosovo,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova (46).
The appointment of the pro-Russian nationalist Aleksander Vulin (50) as head of the secret service at the beginning of December also documented the strong solidarity between Serbia and Russia. The Russian embassy in Belgrade supports the Serbian demands, “no matter how radical they are,” explains Konrad Clewing.
According to the Eastern Europe researcher, this is merely political support. It is very unlikely that Serbia will receive any military support from Russia.
The newly won self-confidence of the Serb population in northern Kosovo and the moral support of Russia are unlikely to change the initial situation. According to the expert, there is a high probability that Serbia will not risk an open confrontation with KFOR – and thus with NATO.
How could the conflict be defuse again?
Partly openly, partly hidden in northern Kosovo, Serbia could further undermine the independence of the neighboring country. Conversely, it will remain difficult for Kosovo to build up its institutions against the will of the population of Serbian origin. Both would only exacerbate the situation.
Konrad Clewing therefore advocates a European solution. “Eulex police and KFOR, in consultation with the government in Pristina, must largely assume responsibility in the conflict region.”