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Ukraine is holding up well in the fight against Russia – like here at the front in Bakhmut.
Chiara SchlenzEditor News
“It must be a crucial year,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (44) at the beginning of the week, summarizing his expectations for 2023. But what will the new year bring for the two warring parties? An overview.
David versus Goliath – that was the idea of the war in Ukraine. At least in part, this has come true: «little» Ukraine is standing firm in the face of big Russia. Some experts even believe that Ukraine has the clear upper hand on the battlefield.
The situation around the city of Bakhmut is representative of Ukraine’s steadfastness – for weeks Russian troops have been biting their teeth on the front line, the Ukrainians are successfully defending it.
However, Putin’s troops have adopted a perfidious tactic and are targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure – bombing the country in the cold and darkness. But while Ukraine is backed with weapons by the West, Russia’s stocks are steadily declining – another advantage for the Ukrainians.
War Aims of Ukraine
There is a lot at stake for the attacked country. No wonder Zelenski’s government wants to end the war as quickly as possible – with a victory over the aggressor. Because the longer the war lasts, the more likely unfavorable scenarios such as a stalemate situation or a partial victory for Russia become.
Ukraine demands that Russia withdraw from the occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, pay for war damage and that Russian war crimes be prosecuted. But how does she want to bring the army of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70) to its knees?
With Western weapons, as the Ukrainian government has repeatedly emphasized. “If the international community provides sufficient military supplies, there is every reason to believe that Ukraine will complete the task of defeating Russia in the new year,” said Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov (56).
The war aims of Russia
While Ukraine wants to end the armed conflict as quickly as possible, Putin is gambling on the exact opposite: the longest possible war. The Kremlin hopes that the Ukrainian armed forces and morale will be worn down on the one hand and that the West will be divided on the other.
The head of the Kremlin knows that the more distant a Ukrainian victory seems, the faster Western support for the country will fall and the greater the pressure on Kyiv to negotiate with the despot – an extremely favorable scenario for Russia, because they are counting on Ukrainian concessions there.
Because even if the Russian government has repeatedly changed its propaganda: In the end, the Russian ruler wants to overthrow the Ukrainian government, conquer large parts of the country and disband the Ukrainian armed forces. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (72) recently confirmed this to the Tass news agency.
Major offensive in spring
On Christmas Eve, the “NZZ” published a report by the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in which two scenarios for the continuation of this war are described. In the first, Russia will focus on conquering the Donbass, in the second, they want to conquer all of Ukraine.
Both have in common that Russia will launch another major offensive, possibly with the support of Belarus, as the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently reported. The timing of this offensive is not yet known, but experts expect an attack by spring at the latest.
The chances of success are also uncertain. But one thing is certain: “For 2023, the outcome of the Russian spring offensive will be the decisive factor. Putin had admitted that around 50,000 of the newly mobilized troops were already on the front lines; the other 250,000 of those who have just been mobilized are training for next year,” security expert Michael Clarke analyzed for the BBC.
During his visit to the United States, Zelensky presented a ten-point peace plan. But negotiations are currently not realistic. Military expert Marcel Berni (34) analyzed the conversation with Blick: “I currently see no potential for ceasefire or even peace negotiations.” Both sides are currently hoping for military gains in territory, which makes the war “not yet ripe for negotiations”.
“What is there to negotiate about? About a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine? Or about a Ukrainian capitulation?” Berni asks himself. Both are currently unrealistic due to the constellation of military forces and the claims of the warring parties. The Russian side is also not very enthusiastic about the proposals. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov (54) and Foreign Minister Lavrov both stressed that the conditions for such a plan were not met.
there is no end in sight
Claudia Major, security expert at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), said in an interview with “Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland” that there will come a point in time when the two sides will agree to freeze the conflict. “But the political conflict has not yet been resolved. It is about the future of Ukraine, about the future of Russia, about borders and war reparations, about coming to terms with war crimes, about security guarantees for Ukraine. The political conflict is therefore getting bigger and more difficult to resolve with each passing day.”
The Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg (53) does not expect the war to end anytime soon, as he explains to “Puls24”. “Unfortunately, the war will be with us for a long time into 2023.”