A study has found that a “yes” vote on the Swiss People’s Party (UDC/SVP) initiative would impose considerable costs on Switzerland.
The study was conducted by Demgrafik, a research and consulting firm based in Basel. Its authors argue that curbing population growth would bring some benefits, easing pressure on housing, infrastructure and the environment, as well as on means-tested welfare programmes such as social assistance.
But these gains would be outweighed by the costs. The study says the finances Switzerland’s pay-as-you-go state pension system, would deteriorate by several billion Swiss francs a year for decades. Tax revenues would fall faster than spending, while healthcare costs would account for a larger share of national income than they would without the cap. Currently, the amount spent annually on state pensions is close to ten times the sum spent on social assistance.
Restricting immigration would also worsen the shortage of skilled workers, particularly in healthcare.
The authors add that the effects of a population cap would depend heavily on how it was designed. Well designed measures to slow population growth, triggered when the population reached 9.5m, could reduce some of the negative impact.
The study stems from two motions adopted by the Council of States in 2025 and submitted by Pascal Broulis of the PLR/FDP and Marianne Binder-Keller of the Centre party. In a statement published on Wednesday, the Federal Council summarised the study’s findings and noted that it had been completed on May 8th.
In the interests of transparency, the government said, it was decided to publish the study immediately rather than wait for the accompanying report on the motions to be adopted.
On June 14th Swiss voters will decide on the UDC/SVP’s initiative against a Switzerland of 10m people. The party wants to amend the constitution with a new article on “sustainable population development”. Under the proposal, the permanent resident population could not exceed 10m before 2050.
If the population were to reach 9.5m before then, the Federal Council and parliament would be required to take action.
More on this:
Study (in German)
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