Swiss voters are divided over a proposed increase in value-added tax (VAT) to fund an extra annual state-pension payment, according to the first representative SRG poll.
The survey, conducted by gfs.bern from 5 to 18 October and published this week, found that 49% of eligible voters opposed the proposal and 46% supported it, with 5% undecided. The gap falls within the poll’s margin of error.
Two years ago, voters approved a 13th annual payment under Switzerland’s old-age and survivors’ insurance scheme, known as AHV. The Federal Council and parliament now propose raising VAT by 0.4 percentage points to pay for it.
A generational divide
Older voters are more likely to support the increase, while younger voters mostly oppose it. Those in the middle age group are evenly split. Support is strongest among those who will benefit when the extra payment begins in December 2026.
Income appears to matter less. Support and opposition are broadly balanced across income groups. Party allegiance, however, makes a marked difference.
Opponents have the stronger arguments
All three arguments against the proposal tested in the survey won clear majorities. The most persuasive was that structural reforms, rather than higher taxes and levies, should close AHV’s funding gaps. A key one is a later state pension age.
Arguments in favour attracted less support. Some 54% saw the VAT increase as fair because it would ensure that all generations contributed. But the claim that it represented a reasonable compromise failed to win a majority, even though it had the greatest influence on voting intentions.
Taken together, the arguments for the proposal command less support than the proposal itself.
Much remains unsettled
Almost half of eligible voters—46%—have yet to reach a firm decision. This includes those leaning towards either side as well as those who do not know how they will vote. With the campaign only just beginning, opinion could still shift considerably.
Voters’ views on government proposals usually move towards the position of the Federal Council and parliament as the campaign progresses. But the close race, the strength of the arguments against the increase and concerns about purchasing power make this a difficult starting point for its supporters.
Support among voters over 65 offers a counterweight. Their above-average turnout could prove important.
More on this:
gfs.bern poll (in French) – Take a 5 minute French test now
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