A slim majority of Swiss voters intend to reject the “No Switzerland of 10m” initiative, according to the second SSR poll ahead of the June 14th referendum.
With only days remaining before the vote, the campaign over the immigration initiative looks set to remain tight. Had the vote been held on May 23rd, 52% of voters would have rejected the proposal put forward by the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), according to a poll conducted by gfs.bern for SSR.
Since the first survey a month earlier, support for the “no” camp has risen by five percentage points, while support for the initiative has fallen by two points. The proposal must secure both a popular majority and a majority in a majority of cantons to pass.
The initiative, also described by its supporters as a “sustainability initiative”, seeks to curb Switzerland’s population growth. It would oblige the federal government to ensure that the country’s permanent resident population does not exceed 10m before 2050. Bern would be required to take action once the population reaches 9.5m.
Although parties across the political spectrum acknowledge the strains created by demographic growth, most reject the Swiss People’s Party’s (UDC/SVP) proposed remedies, arguing that they would threaten Swiss prosperity and create economic and administrative disruption. This political divide is reflected clearly in voting intentions. Only UDC/SVP supporters back the initiative overwhelmingly, with 96% in favour.
On the left and among Green Liberal voters, opposition exceeds 80%, and resistance has strengthened since the first poll. A similar shift has occurred among supporters of the Centre party and the PLR/FDP, both of which are likely to prove decisive. Centre voters now oppose the initiative by 64%, up six points, while FDP supporters—who were evenly divided a month ago—now lean against it, with 55% intending to vote “no”, up seven points.
Regional differences remain pronounced. In French-speaking Switzerland, more than 60% of respondents oppose the initiative, with support for rejection rising sharply over the past month. German-speaking Switzerland remains almost evenly split, with 50% opposed and 48% in favour. Italian-speaking Switzerland has moved in the opposite direction: support for the initiative has climbed to 50%, while opposition has fallen to 48%.
The socio-demographic divides seen earlier in the campaign have largely persisted. Younger voters, women and urban residents remain the core of the opposition to the initiative. Older voters are now also, on balance, against it. By contrast, men, middle-aged voters and residents of rural and semi-rural areas remain the groups most receptive to the UDC/SVP’s arguments.
Given that opinions appear largely settled—only 3% of those polled are undecided—the outcome may depend less on voters changing their minds than on which side succeeds in mobilising supporters, gfs.bern noted. The polling institute also pointed out that the survey was conducted before the knife attack in Winterthur. “Events of this kind can influence short-term mobilisation,” the pollsters wrote.
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