With four federal proposals heading to a vote on March 8th, opinion polls suggest one contest remains finely balanced, while voters appear to have made up their minds on the other three. According to a mid-January survey commissioned by SRG, the initiative targeting the public broadcaster is deadlocked. By contrast, individual taxation commands broad support, the climate fund looks headed for defeat, and the cash initiative will hinge on a tie-breaker.
The most uncertain contest concerns the so-called SRG initiative, which proposes cutting the household media fee, which effectively all households must pay, to CHF 200 and abolishing it altogether for companies. Had the vote been held in mid-January, 52% would have rejected the proposal—well within the margin of error. The divide is starkly ideological, pitting left against right. Younger voters, unusually, are more sceptical than their older voters. With opinions finely balanced, turnout may prove decisive.
Support is far stronger for individual taxation. Some 64% of respondents backed a federal law allowing married couples to be taxed separately, according to GFS Bern. More than three-quarters expect the proposal to pass. Women are particularly supportive, while opposition is concentrated on the right—though even the base of the Swiss People’s Party (UDC/SVP) narrowly favours the change.
The climate fund initiative appears to be losing momentum. Five weeks before the vote, 60% opposed it, giving its critics a lead of 25 percentage points. Concerns about public finances and national security have crowded out climate policy, pollsters suggest. Older voters are especially resistant to the plan.
The fourth vote—on enshrining cash and the Swiss franc in the constitution—looks set to be decided by a tie-breaker. Both the popular initiative and the direct counter-proposal put forward by the Federal Council and Swiss Parliament attract comfortable majorities. With voters marginally favouring the counter-proposal, the deciding question may again prove pivotal—only the second time it has done so at federal level since 2010.
More on this:
Gfs.bern survey (in French) – Take a 5 minute French test now
SRF article (in German)
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